By Elizabeth Anne Hull
Elizabeth Anne Hull
Perhaps the best known “law” that governs the universe we live in is Murphy’s Law: “If anything can go wrong, it will (go wrong).” I was shocked recently to discover that Murphy’s Law isn’t ancient , but dates from 1949. I was twelve in 1949, and had already started reading science fiction, but Murphy’s Law seems to me to be something I always knew.
People my age haven’t forgotten the Peter Principle: “In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence,” only slightly more recent, formulated by Dr. Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull in their 1968 book, The Peter Principle
In that spirit of describing the random world around us, a few years ago I formulated Betty’s Law — which has a better ring to it than Hull’s Law, don’t you think? — and began teaching/preaching about it to my friends, acquaintances, anyone who would listen. Betty’s Law goes like this: “Everything always takes twice as long as you think it will — at least. (And it’s that at least part that causes trouble.)”
Test this against your own experience: It’s easy enough to cope with the main clause, just allow twice what you think a task should require. But since that’s the minimum, most of the time you will find that it’s healthier and more realistic not to overschedule, or you will be running late and offending or at least imposing on friends and business associates. Sometimes a task can take two, three, four times the time you originally estimated. Being stuck in traffic behind an accident, or installing software, or putting together a new end table with “some assembly required” are common examples. If doctors allowed for Betty’s Law, wouldn’t they and we be happier and less stressed out?
BTW, Betty’s Law applies especially to regaining health, for both Fred and me, anyway. The good news is that we’re going in the right direction now. Thanks to everyone who’s sent get well wishes our way.
Nathan says:
For a more pessimistic and recursive version, see Hofstadter’s law:
“ It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law. ”
— Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law
April 7, 2009, 4:05 pmbruce says:
I’ll hold a good thought for you both.
April 7, 2009, 6:35 pmJeff says:
This sounds like a variation on Scotty’s Law - Always double or triple your estimate for how long it will take to complete a task. That way, when you complete the task early, you get a reputation as a miracle worker.
April 7, 2009, 9:08 pmStefan Jones says:
I work in software development, and can vouch for Betty’s Law.
A co-worker has a motto in his email signature that notes that while it takes nine women-months to make a baby, nine women can’t get it done in one month no matter how hard they try.
April 7, 2009, 10:45 pmpk1154 says:
My late father’s rule of thumb was to make your best estimate for the time needed to complete a project and multiply that by PI.
This allows time for unexpected contingencies (thus the ‘at least’ part of Betty’s Law).
It also allows for the Heroic Engineer to bring in the project ahead of schedule, at least sometimes.
April 8, 2009, 7:16 amEmily says:
So happy to hear about your collective health improving. We’ve been sending you healthy vibes from up north. See you in a week or so. XO
April 8, 2009, 9:09 amDavid S. says:
Yes, as others have noted it’s a well known law of project management. I came across it in IT projects and as told to me it was, “estimate how long you think it’ll take, then double that and add fifty percent.” It’s still the best estimate you’re likely to get ahead of time what with all the known unknowns and unknown unknowns…
April 9, 2009, 7:33 amRich Rostrom says:
I have seen a “Fourth Law of Thermodynamics”, also known as “Cheops’ Law”.
To wit: Everything takes longer and costs more.
April 12, 2009, 2:42 amChris McKitterick says:
This sounds a lot like’s Kij’s Law: Double it and add 30.
April 18, 2009, 10:06 pmChris
David Dyer-Bennet says:
“The first 90 percent of the work takes the first 90 percent of the time; the last 10 percent of the work takes the second 90 percent of the time.”
I’m also very happy with the rule of thumb for project estimation where you make your estimate, multiple by two, add three, and label with the next higher unit of measure (hours become days, days become weeks, etc.).
April 20, 2009, 10:15 amGeorge Grant says:
On the way to Googling something else, my mind slipped back to my old high school days at Rich Twp. H.S in Park Forest where I knew a girl named Betty Anne Hull. Looking at the picture I’m sure it’s that Betty Anne. The name fit at the time, but now she’s Dr. Elizabeth Anne Hull Puhl and I’m sure that name fits now. But then as The Bard has said,”What’s in a name…….?”
May 1, 2009, 9:16 pmIt’s a pleasure to learn what you have done with your life, Betts. If you get the urge drop me a line at BrerRabbit@comcast.net or gtgrant@medscape.com whichever better suits you mood at the time.
George